onsdag 3. oktober 2012

TO DRILL OR NOT TO DRILL? OM Å REDDE VERDEN ET OLJEFELT OM GANGEN

Medblogger Petter skrev på mandag om et debattinnlegg i Aftenposten hvor professor Bård Harstad foreslår at Norge kan kjøpe opp (rettigheter til) mindre lønnsomme oljereserver i andre land som et nasjonalpolitisk klimatiltak.

Ideen som blir fremmet av professoren har sitt utspring i en teoretisk forskningsartikkel som nylig ble publisert i det prestisjetunge samfunnsøkonomiske tidsskriftet Journal of Political Economy med tittel Buy coal! A case for supply-side environmental policy.

En populærvitenskapelig fremstilling av Harstads forskningsresultater kan finnes i Scientific American:
New Emissions-Curbing Strategy: Buy Coal in Ground and Lock Up Supply

A Northwestern University economist who has closely followed strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide has a new recommendation for frustrated climate activists: Buy coal.

In a paper published in the current Journal of Political Economy, Bård Harstad, an associate professor of managerial economics and decision sciences at Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management, argues that the most effective strategies to combat climate change do not focus on demand-side solutions such as carbon taxes or emission caps.

Rather, he argues, climate-concerned governments and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) should pool their resources and buy up the extraction rights to coal and other fossil fuels from so-called "third countries" that choose not to participate in greenhouse gas-reducing collectives.

The study's title -- "Buy Coal! A Case for Supply-Side Environmental Policy" -- captures the radical essence of Harstad's argument, which he acknowledged will be a tough sell to governments and NGOs that have locked on "demand-side" policies. It may not warm the hearts of those who aim to curb emissions by compelling users of fossil fuels to consume less, or invest billions of dollars in carbon-capture technologies.

But unlike diplomatic efforts thus far, he says, it will have a well-defined and immediate impact:

"By letting coalition countries buy extraction rights in third countries -- and preserve rather than exploit the fuel deposits -- climate coalitions can circumvent the traditional problems of a demand-side policy," said Harstad, who earned a Ph.D. from Stockholm University in Sweden and is a native of Norway.

In a telephone and email interview from Norway, Harstad said he knows of no specific cases in which such approaches are being used by governments or NGOs. But, he noted, "there is already a market for extraction rights, and countries all over the world are already selling or leasing the right to extract their fields to international companies.

"My paper suggests that a climate coalition could benefit vastly by being active in the very same market," he added.

Les resten av Scientific American artikkelen her.

Et  spørsmål som det kunne vært interessant å stille professor Harstad er om han har regnet ut hvor mye dette tiltaket vil koste per enhet med utslippsreduksjon?  Hvordan sammenlikner kostnaden seg med kjøp og kast av utslippskvoter fra det europeiske kvotemarkedet? Hvor plasserer dette tiltaket seg på klimakurgrafen?

Dessverre er jeg er redd for at Harstads ide, - slik den nå har blitt presentert i det norske offentlige rom - vil kunne bli en katalysator for flere farlige tankerekker om samfunnsøkonomisk kostbare ”ut-og-redde-verden prosjekter” fra ymse norske klimafanatikere og klimaprofittører.

La oss håpe jeg tar feil.

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