NY FORSKNING 1: USIKKERHET OM DE ØKONOMISKE EFFEKTENE AV KLIMAENDRINGER

Sammendrag av nylig publisert metaanalyse i tidsskriftet Environmental and Resource Economics: 

Abstract

This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3◦C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3◦C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7◦C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3◦C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3◦C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7◦C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.◦C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3◦C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7◦C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.◦C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7◦C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.◦

Referanse & Lenke:

Toll, RSJ (2012):  On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change. Environmental and Resource Economics 53: 97-116.