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onsdag 20. mars 2013

SEMINAR MILJØØKONOMENE SKAL PÅ I DAG

SEMINAR ØKONOMI OG FINANS

Velkommen til åpent seminar onsdag 20. mars med Marc Gronwald: The Relationship between the Carbon Market and Financial Markets – a Frequency Domain Analysis

Marc Gronwald er ansatt ved Ifo-instituttet ved Universitetet i Munchen. Han jobber med klima, miljø og naturressurser, og vil besøke faggruppen i industriell økonomi, 19-24 mars.

Seminaret finner sted på Universitetet i Stavanger Ellen & Axel Lunds hus H-125 kl 11:30-12:30. Enkel servering.

Her er sammendrag:
The urgent problem of climate change heads the political agenda now already for a number of years. The economic idea of internalizing external effects is of particular importance in this context. The preferred policy instrument to achieve this is establishing emission trading schemes. According to conventional wisdom, this approach is the cost-efficient way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is currently by far the largest existing trading scheme; certificates used in this scheme are called European Union Allowances (EUA). In addition to this multi-national trading scheme, e.g. Australia decided to start a national trading scheme. Moreover, different regional systems in the US are also currently established. It should be noted that the idea of emission trading schemes is based on economic reasoning and implies establishing entirely new markets. In that sense, this market is "artificial". This, naturally, involves various regulatory decisions, ranging from allowance allocation to banking and borrowing between different compliance periods, as in the EU-ETS.

As establishing emission trading schemes is the preferred policy instrument to tackle the problem of climate change, it is of particular importance to have a sufficient understanding of the determinants as well as the behaviour of the prices observed in this market. With the end of the first trading period of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), empirically analysing emission allowance prices receives growing attention in the literature. A number of recent papers investigate the relationship between European carbon prices on the one hand and commodity prices as well as financial market variables on the other. A key result that emerged from this research effort is that the relationship between these markets was stronger during the period of the financial crisis [Gronwald et al., 2011]. Other studies which focus on the relationship between carbon markets and other markets are the so-called "rockets and feathers" literature [Lo Prete and Norman, 2012] as well as those that study macroeconomic risk factors [Chevallier, 2009] and the fundamental value of carbon prices [Hintermann, 2009].

As establishing emission trading schemes is the preferred policy instrument to tackle the problem of climate change, it is of particular importance to have a sufficient understanding of the determinants as well as the behaviour of the prices observed in this market. With the end of the first trading period of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), empirically analysing emission allowance prices receives growing attention in the literature. A number of recent papers investigate the relationship between European carbon prices on the one hand and commodity prices as well as financial market variables on the other. A key result that emerged from this research effort is that the relationship between these markets was stronger during the period of the financial crisis [Gronwald et al., 2011]. Other studies which focus on the relationship between carbon markets and other markets are the so-called "rockets and feathers" literature [Lo Prete and Norman, 2012] as well as those that study macroeconomic risk factors [Chevallier, 2009] and the fundamental value of carbon prices [Hintermann, 2009].

onsdag 19. desember 2012

KARBONPRISING I CALIFORNIA

Det har vært mye negativt om kvotesystemer i norsk media i det siste. Utspringet til dette var en nylig NRK dokumentar (Oppgjørets Time) som satte søkelyset på en bestemt type kvoter som Norge har kjøpt mange av for å (over)oppfylle forpliktelser fra Kyoto 1 avtalen.

Forbigått med stillhet her i Norge er det faktum at staten California i USA - med 8 ganger vår befolkning og 5 ganger vårt lands BNP - har egenrådig innført kvotesystem med kvotesalg og karbonprising (cap-and-trade) for sitt territorium. Kvotehandel ble offisielt startet 14. november. Her er en oppdatering fra Bloomberg News om hvordan systemet har fungert så langt:

California Carbon Rises to Six-Week High on New Market Players
California carbon rose to the highest level in almost two months as more companies were seen trading allowances and on speculation that Edison International (EIX)’s San Onofre nuclear power plant will remain shut next year.

Futures based on California carbon allowances for 2013, the first year of compliance under the state’s cap-and-trade program, jumped 8.6 percent yesterday to $13.20 a metric ton, the most since Oct. 19, data compiled by CME Group Inc. (CME)’s Green Exchange show. Prices had slipped to $12.65 a ton at 1:30 p.m. New York time today, Lenny Hochschild, head of global carbon trading for broker Evolution Markets, said.

“We’re all continuing to see additional participants in the marketplace,” Hochschild, based in San Francisco, said by telephone. “It’s a combination of San Onofre shut and these new entrants in the marketplace that’s helping support prices.”

Carbon futures slid last week to a record low of $11.55 a ton after allowances, each permitting the release of one ton of carbon, sold in a Nov. 14 auction just above the minimum price of $10. The carbon-trading system will eventually cover 85 percent of emissions released in California, whose economy was valued at $1.74 trillion last year.
...
Les rest av artikkelen her. I utgangspunktet er jeg skeptisk til unilaterale klimatiltak i et forsøk på å løse et globalt problem. Dette har norske politikere og klimaaktivister blitt kritisert for flere ganger her på MILJØØKONOMENE.

Men er det noe "land" i verden som kunne vært en first-mover og frembrakt/fremtvunget handlingsvilje fra andre så er det nettopp staten California. Dersom California kan overbevise andre stater i USA til å følge etter kan et slikt system bli aktuelt på nasjonalt plan som igjen vil kunne lede til at andre nasjoner med store klimautslipp vil (måtte) følge etter.

 Det blir derfor svært interessant å se hva som skjer videre. Les mer om Californias kvotesystem her.